An Analytic Critical Review

Saudi Arabia’s vision 2030

An Analytic Critical Review

By: Dr. Abdulaziz Mohammed Al Dukheil

Riyadh

May 2016

Table of Contents

Introduction	2
First: Saudi Arabia’s vision 2030	6
Pillars of the Vision	6
Program of the Vision	6
Policies and orientation of the Vision	7
Second: Critical review of the vision	11
The will to change is a public demand	11
Substitution of foreign investments for underground oil	12
Aramco and Saudi underground oil	16
Sale of part of Saudi Aramco	17
Establishment of Saudi joint stock oil and gas companies to compete with Aramco	18
Saudi human resources are the main pillar of economic development	18
Woman	20
Poverty	21
Income tax on wealthy people and on wealth	22
Water	23
Population growth	24
Unemployment and the ineffective remedy – Saudiization	24
Political and social development as a prerequisite of economic development	29
Expatriates and their role in implementation of vision 2030 programs	30
Administrative and financial corruption	32
Development and the moderate jurisprudence	33

Introduction:

Before discovery of oil in 1938, our fathers and grandfathers made their living by practicing grazing and agriculture at the oases, villages and deserts of the Kingdom. They drove commercial caravans to Iraq, Sham and Egypt in addition to diving deep in the Arabian Gulf and Red Sea hunting pearls. They also worked in other trades such as building.

Our country was poor in terms of economic resources but it was rich in terms of will and power of its men and women who worked hard to secure their honorable living.

With the advent of the oil era and the start of production and export subsequent to the second world war in 1945, both the government and the people became wealthy and they had a lot of money to spend. In 1975 the government spent most of the money it had and was about to go bankrupt but it succeeded to manage its affairs, improve its budget get back to the path of regular spending with technical and financial assistance offered by the United States Of America whose eyes were on the oil under the ground rather than the human being on the surface. In 1970 , or 46 years ago, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia issued, through the ministry of planning, the first five year development plan (1970 – 1975) whose three objectives were as follows:

1.      Enhancement of the GDP growth

2.      Development of the human resources to enable various components of the society to increase contribution to production and fully participate in the production process.

3.      Diversification of the sources of national income and reducing dependence on oil through increasing contribution of other production sectors to the GDP.

The objective of enhancement of the GDP growth is usually the main objective of any development plan of any country. However, the heart of the objectives was the second objective of the plan: “Development of human resources to enable various components of the society to increase contribution to production and fully participate in the production process”. The third objective “Diversification of the sources of national income and reducing dependence on oil” is also found in all the nine  five year plans of the Kingdom.

In October 1973 i.e. mid of the first five year plan (1970 – 1975), oil price revolution   broke out due to  OPEC’s oil embargo of the US and Holland for backing Israel during the Arab–Israeli war of 1973. Oil price increased four folds from $3.6 per barrel early 1973 to $12per barrel at the end of 1974. Oil price increase led to doubling the oil revenue of the Kingdom.

In that era which I witnessed while I was working at the ministry of finance, there were two schools as far as devising the strategy of economic development of the Kingdom was concerned. The first school was headed by the Crown Prince then, Late King Fahd Bin Abdul Aziz, His Excellency Ahmed Zaki Yamani, Minister of Petroleum and Late Minister of Planning His Excellency Mr. Hisham Nazir. The Methodology adopted by this school is to increase government expenditure on petrochemical and other projects and industries first and then to develop manpower. The developmental methodology of the second school headed by Late Prince Musaad Bin Abdul Rahman Minister of Finance and Mr. Mohammed Aba Al-Khail Deputy Minister of Finance then was based on striking a balance in government expenditure and focusing on manpower and servicing it first, and then major projects.

In the first five year plan (1970 – 1975) the voice of the second school (balance in the expenditure) was louder and hence there was focus on manpower development first. When government revenues increased due to increase of oil prices, the first school whose development strategy was to focus on projects first and then to develop manpower, found justification, encouragement and means to support priority of expenditure on projects and so government expenditure on the second five year plan increased nine folds as compared to the first plan. This leap on expenditure on projects had the advantage of preparing national manpower technologically and occupationally to actually contribute to economic development projects and advanced industries thereof. This also required paving the way by the government to recruit expatriates to operate and manage those high-tech projects in addition to inflow of service labor whose number had also multiplied due to higher per capita income and increasing profits of the private sector due to government expenditure.

The five year plans followed one another up to the ninth plan (2010 – 2015) which followed the same pattern: priority to projects over development of national manpower and enhancement of its scientific and technological abilities.

Today our economy can be described as follows:

a.      An economy which is highly dependent on oil as a major source of government revenues. Share of oil revenues exceeded 90% of the current year (2016) budget.

b.      Our economy basically depends on government expenditure to run the production and consumption wheel whether in the public or private sector. All eyes, without any exception, are on the government budget and all utilize this government source directly or indirectly. This source is but an oil well which will run dry one day or price of its oil may become too cheap to depend on.

c.       An economy that accommodates a tremendous number of skilled and unskilled foreign laborers who have not force themselves in but have come on our request, a request imposed by the government development methodology that is based on high-tech projects first, before preparation of national manpower.

In short, our economy is basically reliant on government expenditure which is in turn basically dependent on oil revenues. The private sector depends to a great extent on government spending. The government has expanded its consumer expenditure and so have the private sector and the citizens. The government earns its income from extracting oil without much effort and productivity of citizens, most of whom are public sector employees, is far less than the salaries they get while profits of businessmen are much higher than their efforts and risks.

A gloomy, worrying picture that appeared to me long ago and I wrote several articles including “ So as not to fall in a deep abyss, Al Sharq Saudi newspaper, 10/3/2014” and a book titles (A Financial Crisis in the Making, Saudi Government Revenues and Expenditures, Macmillan, 2013) in which I relied on statistical analysis of historical and future years and reached the following conclusion: ” If the country continues on the same path, a coming crisis is inevitable. I mentioned the need of the Saudi economy for radical restructuring and explained the features of such restructuring in the last chapter of the book indicating that such restructuring which is having economic, political and management dimensions cannot be achieved without the support of the top political will of the top decision maker, the King,  Political will that seeks to build the economic development strategy on scientific national bases and follow that with a clear executive plan.

In mid 2015 and early 2016 there was a storm indicating a political will for devising an economic strategy. Reviewing what was mentioned in foreign and local newspapers I thought, at first, that was an introduction to the 10^th five year plan, but from interviews with his Royal Highness Mohammed Bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince and head of the Economic council conducted by Bloomberg, the Economist, MBC T.V and journalists interviews that followed, it was evident to me that we were to witness a remarkable event “Saudi Arabia’s vision 2030”.

The Vision, as a political will keen to create material change capable of building a production base to prevent a forth coming financial crisis, is an idea sought by all segments of the society: intellectuals, employees, men and women. They seek it because they feel that the economic, political and social ground on which they stand is not solid enough to keep pace with a world moving fast and developments touching all aspects of individual and social life while our situation is semi stagnant. Therefore, the firm will to effect radical change was met by a positive response by most of the people.

The “Vision 2030” is not in need of reporters whose drums are bigger than their minds and their thinking is to praise rather than to analyze. The Vision needs critical thinking and scientific analysis: thinking that provides an opinion without claiming that the truth is only on its side. That is what I believe I am going to do in this paper.

Following this introduction about our economic condition I go back to my main subject “An opinion on Vision 2030” in this order:

I.                    Summary of the Vision and its components

II.                  Analytic Critical Review of the Vision

          First: Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030        

The vision was planned to take an international informational aspect through the interviews dedicated by his Royal Highness Mohammed Bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince and head of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, to  Bloomberg which published a detailed report on the interview on April 21^st 2016 and the Economist which published an article on this subject issued on April 30, 2016 , pages 33 and 34.

Despite my interest in what has been published in these two sources which were given priority to sit face to face before His Highness Deputy Crown Prince, my analysis of the Vision depended on the document issued by the Council of Ministers regarding approval of the Vision  and the detailed statement attached to the same – both published in Saudi newspapers -  and on the interview conducted with His Highness by the BCC channel and his meeting with Saudi and international press representatives.

Pillars of the Vision:  

The Vision is based on three strong pillars called by the Vision “Success Factors”:

The first pillar: The Kingdom being the Land of the Two Holy Mosques

 The Second pillar: Strong Investment Capabilities

The third pillar: Strategic Geographical Location

Programs of the Vision:

1.      Transformation of the Public Investment Fund (PIF) into the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world with a capital of $ 2 billion to be established by utilizing PIF assets in addition to the return of selling 5% of Aramco assets estimated at $ 3 billion and government assets in the form of lands and shares in companies. The wealth of the fund will be invested in foreign and domestic investments that generate income to the government to replace oil income. The Vision aims to stop depending on oil as a major source of government revenues in 2020 as His Royal Highness said.

2.      Increasing the capacity to welcome pilgrims and Umrah visitors, modification of bureaucratic and administrative procedures and issuing visas in order to increase the number of Umrah visitors from 8 million in 2015 to 30 million in 2030.

3.      Transformation of  Aramco from an oil producing company into a global industrial conglomerate operating throughout the world and investing in industrial, petrochemical, refinery, transportation and other downstream industries. 

4.      Utilization of the strategic location of Saudi Arabia into a global hub connecting the three continents Asia, Europe and Africa and making the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia an epicenter of trade. This will include building the causeway which will join the Kingdom with Egypt the thing that would increase government income from customs tariff.

5.      Offering more opportunities for public – private sector partnership through facilitating activities of the private sector and encouraging it to grow and become one of the largest economies of the world by privatization of government services. The government will be transformed from investor and service provider in some fields such as health, educational and others to involvement of the private sector in direct investment and service provision and the role of the government will be supervision and control.

6.      Establishment of company for Defense Industries to meet the Kingdom’s demand for weapons being the world’s third biggest military spender.

7.      Intensifying exploration and investing in mineral resources such as gold, phosphates and uranium.

8.      Building the largest  Islamic museum in the world which will include sections for science, scholars and culture, in addition to a world-class library and research center.

    

Policies and orientations of the Vision:

The Vision has covered, in general, the policies to be adopted for its execution. The most important of these are:

1.      Encouragement of promising companies to grow bigger and supporting small and medium – sized enterprises and productive families.

2.      Mitigation of lengthy bureaucratic procedures, expanding electronic services and enhancement of government performance level.

3.      Adoption of transparency and immediate accountability.

4.      Privatization of government services and improvement of business environment to attract the best international efficiencies, strong investments and welcome qualified individuals from all over the world and attract global qualifications and talents to work with us and contribute to the development of our economy.

5.      Promotion of culture, entertainment and sports.

6.      Development of cities and meeting the needs and requirements of cities for services such as water, electricity, public transport and roads and reduction of all types of pollution.

7.      Modernization of social welfare system to make it more efficient, empowering and just by better utilization of subsidies for fuel, food, water and electricity and redirecting them towards those in need.

8.      Enhancement of the quality of health care services by transferring health care provision to public companies as a step towards privatization. The government will focus on its legislative, regulatory and supervisory roles beside provision of preventive and primary health care services.

9.      Adopting a culture that rewards determination in order to make the best of employees skills and abilities.

10. Continuation of development of women talents and investing in their productive capabilities and enabling them to finds reasonable opportunities to build their future and contribute to the development of our society and economy.

11. To achieve the desired rate of economic growth at a faster pace, we must create an environment that attracts the necessary skills and capabilities by improving living and working conditions in our country. This will be achieved through allowing more opportunities to non-Saudis to own real estate in certain areas, improving the quality of life, permitting establishment of more foreign schools and adopting an effective and simple system for issuing visas and residence permits.

12. Preparation of modern curricula that focus on basic skills in addition to development of talents and character and enhancement of teachers role and qualifications. In order to follow up, evaluate and improve educational output, a comprehensive database will be built to track students from early childhood up to the advanced stage and establish an educational system linked to labor market requirements.

13. Development of telecommunications and information technology infrastructure

specially high-speed broadband, expanding its coverage within and around cities and improving its quality. This will take place through partnership with the private sector.

14. Concentrating efforts on areas that will assure leadership status and hence priority will  to be support major national companies especially in the field of oil, petrochemicals, banking, telecommunications, food, health care and retail trade. 

15. Raising the share of non-oil exports from 16% of the total GDP in 2015 to 50%, at least, in 2030 and raising Kingdom’s ranking in the Logistics Performance Index from 49 in 2015 to 25 in 2030.

16. Prevention of corruption at all levels whether administrative or financial and achievement of highest levels of transparency and governance in all sectors by setting and upholding high standards of accountability.

17. No taxes on citizens’ income or wealth nor on basic goods. Budget balance will be achieved, revenue sources will be diversified and maximized and the budget will be managed in a prudent manner the thing that will reflect on price stability.

18. Enhancement of spending efficiency in the public sector through strict spending controls, aligning strategic priorities to budget allocations and putting in place auditing and accountability mechanisms and pointing out the authorities responsible of the same.

19. Careful examination of government structures and procedures, assignment of roles, responsibilities and authorities in a way that insure clear separation between decision making and implementation and performance monitoring so as to speed up decision making process and prevent financial and administrative waste.

20. Training more than 500,000 government employee through distant learning and qualifying them to implement human resources management principles at government departments by 2020. The King Salman Program for Human Capital Development will establish Human Resources centers for excellence in every government agency and provide training to develop skills and talents.

21. Applying shared services methodology which aims to unify efforts for optimal utilization of human resources and create suitable business environment for all parties at the least cost by merging support services at government bodies to enhance productivity and quality, reduce cost and prevent financial and administrative waste.

22. Increasing public spending efficiency through comprehensive review of financial regulations in all government agencies to move from reliance on procedures soundness to the concept of efficient spending and its association with achievement of specific measurable goals.

23.   Each citizen is responsible of his own future. He will have to develop himself and work to become independent and active member of the society, planning his financial and occupational future. Each individual is responsible of his family and he will have to work hard to acquire skills, utilize such skills and pursue his ambitions. In order for the citizen to fulfill his responsibilities, the government (the Vision) will create the right environment in various fields including provision of financial planning tools such as mortgages, saving portfolios and retirement options.

        Second: Critical Overview of the Vision 

The Will to Change is a public demand:

The Vision and its pillars and programs are based on a political will to change. This political will to change has not come from nothing, rather, it has stemmed from the understanding that there is an economic condition the continuation of which will ultimately lead to a serious financial crises.

When the Deputy Crown Prince declared the change, the popular response was prompt and strong. Hopes of citizens, especially those from the middle and below middle class, hiked to the skies of the Vision, indicating that they had not got their share and right of jobs, residence, health services and welfare. However, this strong and rapid momentum from the side of the political leadership to effect a substantive and rapid change in the economic arena as shown in the vision, involves the necessity of subjecting the Vision to critique and analysis to avoid any disappointment or shake in confidence. Such critical analysis must aim at scientific and practical diagnosis of the components of the Vision that  points out any weaknesses and highlights and praises all strengths: patriotic critical analysis based on knowledge, patriotism and loyalty, and I believe we have a lot of experienced, faithful, cultured and knowledgeable men and women in our country who are able to contribute to such critical analysis.

The sponsor of the Vision and bearer of its banner, His Royal Highness Mohammed Bin Salman Deputy Crown Prince and Chairman of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs has left the door widely open for purposeful constructive critique when he said in his speech with which he presented the Vision to the Council of Ministers, “We will be transparent and open about our failures as well as our successes, and will welcome ideas on how to improve.” 

Below is my analytic point of view regarding the Vision:

Substitution of foreign investments for underground oil:

This issue, as I see it, is the most important and serious part of the Vision 2030. Saudi underground oil is a natural wealth for this generation and future generations. Its value increases and decreases annually pursuant to rise and fall of price per barrel in the international oil market. The financial assets of the Sovereign Fund are also national wealth for this generation and generations to come invested in financial instruments and financial funds in foreign countries. These assets have annual return either positive or negative (profit or loss). Foreign investment is subject to political and legal risks due to being in a foreign country and governed by a foreign law. Oil, on the other hand, is kept in its geological sources under the ground in Saudi Arabia and under the Saudi sovereignty and Saudi law. I discussed this issue in 1974 in my PhD thesis about “Oil Prices in the Middle East” when I wrote about linkage between (oil market) and (capital market) to find out optimal rate of production which is achieved when there is equilibrium between rate of price increase of a barrel of Saudi oil and actual rate of return of foreign investments (DP = R). I don’t want to go into technical details that may annoy the readers and would rather refer interested readers to a paper written by Professor Wasinkin and myself in 1977 in this regard and published in Business Horizon, Indiana University, USA, School of Business Administration – pages 69 – 73.   

My point of view is that the disadvantages of selling 5% or less of the Saudi oil which is owned by future generation as well, in order to invest the value in foreign assets through the Saudi Sovereign Fund (Public Investment Fund) will exceed the advantages for the following reasons:

1.      Oil prices today (2016) are low and may get lower, but most probably they may remain at the present level of $ 40 and improve in the middle term (5 to 7 years), but for the long term it will be difficult to predict price level and trend because this would depend on several factors that affect supply and demand side such as technological advancement in the field of continuous usage of oil as vehicles’ fuel or expansion and success of electric automobiles and technological advancements of production of alternative power and technology of extracting oil from abnormal sources such as shale oil and oil sands. But studies, despite difference in ideas, tend, in most cases, to believe that oil will remain to be a source of energy for a period which is not very short.

2.     Return on foreign investments is subject to several fluctuations according to the international economy status, fluctuation of major currencies and capital movement. High or low risk foreign investments are not large enough to accommodate huge size of investments of the size of the proposed Sovereign Fund. Increasing demand for such type of foreign investment will increase their prices and consequently reduce their financial return. Moreover, foreign investments face political and legal risks that reduce the net real return on Saudi foreign investment. Another point to consider is that government foreign investments of developing countries, especially middle East,  African and Latin American countries, are sometimes subject to loss of some or all of them if, for political or legal reason, a judgment is issued with respect to them. The nearest example to memory regarding Saudi Arabia is the law of suing governments which was put forward before the American Council of Representatives and the Senate last year (2015) in order to sue the government of Saudi Arabia and confiscate its financial assets in America claiming that it played a role in September, 11 events, the thing that made the Saudi government threaten to liquidate its investments before issuance of the resolution. The resolution has been frozen but not dropped and it can be reconsidered at any time. Liquidation of foreign investments in the United State or any other foreign country is not an easy thing for these investments will be subject to enormous losses. All these probabilities and political, legal and financial risks will reduce the value of the real return of the Saudi foreign investments and even render them subject to diminishing either for financial, political or legal reasons and historical examples of the same are there. In addition to what has been mentioned above, there is a frequently asked question whose clear answer is demanded by each foreign investment portfolio manager. The question relates to the risk appetite of the fund owner, his financial need to these amounts of money and how much these amounts make as a percentage of his total financial assets. The answer to this question determines the types of  investment tools and size of financial risks suitable for this investor. Saudi Arabian foreign investments amounting, up to now, to $600 billion are mostly invested in debt instruments with the American government and other similar investments of low risks and low returns.

These Saudi financial reserves deposited in foreign investments had originated from the previous budget surplus when oil prices are high and the revenues of the government exceeded its expenditure. So, they are government savings put in foreign investments. Management of such investments should be reorganized to upgrade their performance. But, what I am talking about regarding the sovereign fund proposed in the Vision relates to substitution of an investment asset of natural substance available safely under the ground in Saudi Arabia and owned by this generation and future generations. Owners of this valuable oil asset do not have other natural or capital assets such as: rivers, Rain, minerals or advanced technology therefore their future need for oil as a financial asset for current and future generations is so great that it makes risking whole or part of it in foreign investments a serious risk that affects the future of the nation and needs reconsidering because oil wealth proposed to be converted to foreign investments is not a result of production, industrial or technological abilities, rather it belongs to a nation that lacks a lot of natural and technological resources and in the initial phase of building an educated, productive and creative human capital.

I, therefore, believe it would be better to leave oil under the ground in the land of its owners the thing that would guarantee that oil capital is safe and protected against political and legal risks and the way is paved before its owners themselves to manage its affairs and maximize its value by selling it as oil commodity or developing its other derivatives and usages.

It is not important to have a sovereign foreign investment fund which is the biggest in the world. The more the size of investment expands, the more accompanying risks increase and the more size of technical and administrative problems of organizing its returns increase. However, Saudi foreign investments can be developed and improved and their size can witness reasonable increase through establishment of a Sovereign Fund independent from the Public Investments Fund having an independent system and managed by an independent board of governors. The fund will be provided with finance from government savings and budget surplus and its aim will be building productive investment assets for the good of this generation and future generations. It will displace oil as a natural capital, but not as a source of government expenditure. It will also support the need of the country in case of disasters and wars. Payment by the fund shall be according to terms specified in its articles of association and through recommendation of Shura Council and approval of the King.

Aramco and Saudi Underground Oil:   

Saudi underground oil of all types and varieties, that which has been discovered and that which has not been discovered yet, that which is proven and that which is not, is all capital assets of natural resources owned by the nation represented by the present generation and future generations. Each generation is to make use of this oil utilizing the optimum economic methods, enhancing the explorative processes and preserving its underground sources through maintenance and protection in order to achieve comprehensive economic development based on productive human capital and productive capital assets.

Arabian and American Oil Company – Aramco is a company established by American oil companies operating in the Kingdom in 1934. The Saudi government reacquired it fully in 1980 after payment of huge amounts of money to those companies. Today, Aramco is a Saudi company operating in the domain of oil and gas running the operations of exploration, drilling, extraction, selling, refining, manufacturing and maintenance, fully owned by the government. Therefore, we must distinguish between Aramco the government owned company, the concessionaire, of all oil aspects mentioned above plus others, and the underground oil which is the ownership of the Saudi nation. Oil and gas are natural wealth whose preserving, maximization, maintenance in addition to organization of their exploration and extraction rules and procedures should be entrusted to a supreme commission to be called “The Supreme Commission for Oil and Gas’ which shall enjoy full autonomy and supervised by Governors council of Saudi nationals headed by the King. The basic function of the Supreme Commission for Oil and Gas will be maximizing and developing onshore and offshore exploration processes to search for normal and abnormal oil and gas sources. This would take place through granting concession contracts for exploration by Saudi Companies at international and specific terms and controls. Ownership of oil and gas discovered will go to the National Commission for Oil and Gas by virtue of a prior purchase agreement based on pricing formula which takes in consideration cost of exploration, significance and reasonable company profit. The same will apply to oil extraction and selling which will also take place by these Saudi companies through contracts for selling part of the underground stock of oil and gas for medium terms and at flexible prices that take in consideration the general trend in oil and gas for medium term.

The Supreme National Commission for Oil and Gas shall organize concession contracts related to exploration and usage with the Saudi joint stock companies authorized to work in the field lf oil and gas which are Saudi Aramco and one or two other companies to be established for the same purpose and to compete with Aramco.

Sale of part of Saudi Aramco

His highness Prince Mohammed Bin Salman described Saudi Aramco as being a  closed box that lacks transparency and financial auditing by a shareholders general meeting and selling and floating of 5% of its assets through an international and domestic Initial Public Offer (IPO) will force the company to disclose its performance and processes before the Shareholders General Meeting, as imposed by Corporate Governance Rules. That is true, but transparency and accountability in Saudi Aramco can be achieved by floating part of its shares for public subscription in the Saudi market and only for Saudis. This will achieve transparency within Saudi governance rules and Saudi Stock Market regulations without exposing Aramco, the national capital, to legal problems pertaining to companies registration problems in major financial markets in New York, London …etc. and what relates to that later of foreign shareholders’ equity imposed by New York, London and Hong Kong markets and related legal proceedings that may be taken against the company by an American or non- American in his country. However, a foreign investor can – within certain controls and limits – purchase Aramco shares in the Saudi stock market  as per its regulations.

Establishment of Saudi Joint Stock Oil & Gas Companies to Compete with Aramco:

In order to enhance competition and transparency one or two Saudi joint stock companies may be established to operate in the field of oil and gas beside Aramco. The government will own a suitable share in their capital and the rest of shares shall be offered in the Saudi market and for Saudis only. The “National Commission for oil & gas” will distribute exploration fields and rights among important Saudi companies operating in the field of oil and gas each according to its capability taking in consideration importance of supporting emerging companies till they grow stronger and compete with Aramco.

Saudi Human resources are the main Pillar of economic development

Industrial, commercial and services investments, Hajj, Umrah, fees & charges, customs, foreign investments, activation of private sector’s role, privatization, Aramco, huge industries, giant companies, International Sovereign Fund and all items mentioned in Vision 2030 document are investment streams that generate income to the individuals and the government. But such economic and investment events have not been and will not be able to build a sustainable production base that may support an economy based on real production, creation and technology and lead to increase of per capita income and enhancement of government income. Therefore, priority in any government reformatory program should be given to “building of human resources”, males and females who are scientifically and technologically educated, creative, free, enlightened, and morally and behaviorally civilized. This is the topmost objective of any vision for economic reformation and consequently, political and social reformation.

The essence of man is his mind and the perfect mind is developed through an educational system with principles and foundations built on all disciplines and specializations of knowledge, on logic, on foreign languages and on employing the mind in enquiry and reasoning to search for the truth and taking sides to creation and invention rather than memorization and repetition. Building of the mind starts from early childhood and with the scientific curriculum and academically and behaviorally qualified teacher everything will be targeted to building knowledgeable, intellectual and creative minds.  

In order to be able to learn, acquire knowledge and become creative, one must be  protected from poverty, destitution and disease. Securing the minimum level of the physical life requirements in terms of income, housing and health is a prerequisite for man to be able to learn and become distinctive, the sound mind is in the sound body.

The Saudi citizen whose work and thought  are based on the scientific approach is capable of production. Man is the most important element in the production equation, and is the mental vessel that carries technology, and through him localization of imported foreign technologies can be done together with the advanced equipment, machinery and devices. When the arrival of machinery, equipment and devices preceded preparing the Saudi human resources and readying their minds and scientific capabilities for absorbing, digesting and localizing the techniques through which the new machinery and systems work, it becomes imperative to import the foreign man together with importing the foreign machine for its operation and maintenance, thus the Saudi becomes spectator or he will try to imitate or acquire knowledge from his foreign colleague while the latter would not be willing to do so as this will lead to loss of his job. Consequently, direct & disguised unemployment grows and accumulates among Saudis, and this happened during the second five year plan (1975- 1980) and continued till this day. When building the scientific & technical mind of the Saudi human resources was delayed and large projects with their modern machinery & systems were implemented, a large gap between the market need for skilled laborers and the poor outputs of the Saudi education system emerged.  I fear that vision 2030 may repeat this scene if it does not relate and balance between progress in building the capabilities of the Saudi  human resources and establishing of projects & factories. The Saudi youths, females & males, without exaggeration or fanaticism proved their ability to engage and innovate in the fields of engineering, medical, physical, chemical and electrical sciences and other sciences such as financial, economic and accounting sciences when two things are achieved for them: first, their protection from poverty & need and second, enabling them to acquire sciences & knowledge.

The vision shows the importance of developing the educational curricula and the educational system in order to develop the skills of the citizen in general. But it doesn’t give priority to man building over the other programs & projects so as to ensure localization of the technologies related to the vision’s projects in the minds of homeland’s sons and daughters and also to ensure that large portion of the income associated with those projects will return to the citizens. As for the scientific approach, the basic pillar in the education system, the vision has to work decisively and efficiently for removing the obstacles facing the building of an educational curriculum which gives priority to science, mathematics and languages from the primary level to university level.

I think that the scientific approach and the analytical logical thought, which is counter to the myth, memorization and repetition thought, is still facing difficulties and impediments from some officials & supervisors of curricula development who are in their thought and orientations are closer to the extremists. Any minister of education would not be able to face this issue because it requires a supreme political will which is convinced of the necessity and importance of building the Saudi scientific creative mind and issues the orders relating to implementation of it. 

woman

woman is the basic part in the equation of man building and the human capital, man here means the male and female. I clarified the importance of building the mind of man in the previous paragraph, and what I want to clarify in this paragraph, which is appropriated for woman, is that the woman suffers from the denial of her rights as a human being. Women, as we say, are half of the society in terms of number but they do not enjoy the rights that are enjoyed by the other half (i.e. the men) like freedom of work, movement and act according to the law & rules that govern everyone, men and women. The woman in our Saudi society is not enjoying her complete rights as a fully eligible citizen while the man, when he reaches age of consent, will be free in his acts within the scope of the law. He can establish companies, move, travel, drive a car or an airplane and become a president or employee. As for the woman, every movement she makes is counted against her as she is considered “having incomplete mind & religion”. By this thought and social restriction the woman remains tied with the social and jurisprudence restrictions and not at all the religious restrictions, as the true religion as shown in the Holly Quran and the sayings of Prophet Mohammed, peace be upon him, are innocent of the sufferings of the woman. Thus, half of the community remains paralyzed except for a slow, directed and calculated movement.

Some people say “leave this situation to the time” but I say this is contrary to the logic and the higher values & purposes of Islam relating to progress, advancement, civilization, work and production. The state of affairs in the world today and the race between countries as regards civilization and production do not allow us to leave the things as they are and to leave the rights of women and their active contribution in the building of the homeland to the slow, or sometimes backward, movement of the community. Here comes the role of vision 2030, the role of reform from above, and the role of the political will for change and putting things in their proper context and giving the Saudi women their rights, as their rights nowadays are less than what had been during the early days of Islam i.e. before more than 1400 years. I didn’t find in the vision a strong push to release the Saudi woman from the chains and restrictions and make her able to participate in the economic, social and political movement. The vision didn’t show this intention to release these severe restrictions vigorously and clearly, despite the important role of the woman as an effective and productive member of the community. 

Poverty

Poverty is an evil capable of destroying man dignity, and a source of criminal acts and perversion. It is always associated with ignorance and disease. In the past poverty was confined to certain areas around the cities, but today the poverty lesion is spreading in the cities and among the youths who did not acquire good education to qualify them for a job and high income. Thus the youth became idle or semi idle or he quitted education due to the absence of the capable provider and the pressing need to look for work to provide for a mother or a sister.

Poverty must be addressed, we should not leave it to the charities and philanthropists to deal with it. Poverty is like ignorance and to protect the community from it is the responsibility of the state. The state is responsible of securing the minimum of decent live to the poor citizen in terms of income, accommodation, health and education. Poverty is a lethal enemy and the duty of the state in fighting and eliminating it is equal to fighting an external enemy. Here, I see that the vision didn’t give this issue the due concern in the reform & development programs.

Income tax on wealthy people and on wealth

In the vision, the following was stated: “we will not impose on the citizen any tax on the income or on the wealth”, this commitment appears very nice, but citizens are not equal in their incomes and fortunes, there is the poor and the person who has limited income, such a person must be supported. Among the citizens there are persons who should pay taxes without causing damage to them or to their trade. The duty of the state is to support the poor and the person with limited income and to impose tax on the wealthy person for supporting public expenditure.

The poor and the needy, when the state support them and secure the minimum decent live to them in terms of accommodation, health, education and income, this is the duty of the nation which is in line with the principle of social solidarity (social Takaful) and protection of the community from poverty which is the main source of crime and social diseases. The wealthy person, when the state takes from his fortune for the purpose of supporting public expenditure, this is seen as a duty imposed by the citizenship on every citizen who was able to collect large amounts of money and good wealth from the benevolence of this country in addition to living in security & stability and using its public utilities and facilities. But the income tax and the wealth tax would not achieve the objectives behind imposing it unless the law obligates everyone, the rulers and the subjects, to disclose the information relating to their income and wealth and pay the taxes due on them.

The income tax and wealth tax imposed on the rich people and the high segment of the middle-income persons, each according to his income and wealth, are in all countries the primary tributary of the public finances of the state, and the funds from the taxes paid to the state treasury constitute the legal and political base for the people to hold the government accountable and obligate it to clarify the aspects of spending the public funds and publish the figures and details pertaining to such funds.

The tax is a good instrument for managing the economy and directing its upward and downward movement, and the tax works toward achieving social justice as it takes from the rich and gives to the poor through the support & subsidy programs.

Water

Our ancestors lived in this country without petroleum depending on their forearms in agriculture, grazing, diving, trade, etc. and no group or tribe abandoned its village because of hunger or fear, but they deserted the villages due to dryness of wells and severance of water.

Most of the groundwater stock in the Kingdom is available in deep water components (Deep Aquifers) which were formed thousands of years ago, and this stock is not increasable. The most important of these deep water components are Al Saq, Tabuk, Wajed, Al Najood,, Al Wasei, and Al Dammam. The western part of the Kingdom depends on the water of the surface wells which are fed by the rains.  The deep groundwater represents the main water storage in the Kingdom. But a considerable part of this water storage was consumed during the period of the ill-reputed wheat cultivation program.

Agriculture consumes 70% of the water and the remaining 30% goes to the cities and the industrial usage. The state operates about 32 desalination plants distributed over the Arabic Gulf coast and the red sea, covering around 50% of the demand for water for cities and industry. The desalination process depends on petroleum as a fuel and the cost of one cubic foot of desalinated water is 4 Saudi Riyals.

Water sources in the Kingdom are very limited and very expensive while the demand for water is increasing considerably due to the increase in the number of population and the increase in squandering of water because of its low prices and weak management.  

In general, water represents a major problem for life and development in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This problem can be addressed from two sides: first, strict economy in the usage of water and punish those who cause squandering of water through raising the price of water to the level of its cost and protect the poor by exempting them from paying the cost of the water they need for the day and second, development & localization of desalination industry and make the Kingdom an international center for this technology in order to reduce its costs and make use of exporting this technology.

Despite the high importance of the issue of water and its impact on the future of development, vision 2030 did not give it the due attention that commensurate with its great importance.

Population growth  

Population growth in the Kingdom of Saudis Arabia is one of the high growth rates in the world as it reached 2,24% annually according to the statistics of 2014G. The number of the Kingdom’s population, as per the United Nations reports, reached 32 million persons of which 22 million are Saudis and 10 million are expatriates.  Although the population growth rate decreases with the increase of awareness and the increase of the cost of living, it is still high according to the international ratios. As per the figures of 2015G. which show that the number of population is 22 million Saudis and the population growth rate is 2,2%, we will be facing an increase of 480 thousand child borne every year, each of them needs government spending on food, medication, accommodation and education with a population inflation rate equal to 2,2%.

The reduction of the rate of population growth will contribute directly to the reduction of government spending, also it contributes to increasing the level of family care toward health and education of children when the number is few. But this needs stimulating and  encouraging the community to accept the principle of family planning in order to reduce the high reproduction and polygamy, and this is not easy but not impossible. Any decrease in the population growth rate is directly offset by, and with the same percentage, an increase in the economic growth.

Working toward reduction of population growth as one of the means of enhancing the economic growth: I didn’t find this in the vision 2030 document and also I didn’t find it in the previous five year plan and the reason behind this may be the opposition from some of the religious men, and a large segment of the community follows them in their opposition of the family planning and reducing the high rate of reproduction of children. Here the importance of the political decision appears once again, the political decision which orders a reform that comes in the benefit of the nation and its future and does not contradict with the real moderate Islam whose values and principles focus on the general benefit of the nation.

Unemployment and the ineffective remedy – Saudization

Unemployment among Saudis differs from unemployment and its realty in the other countries. Unemployment concept economically means: that individual, man or woman, who is able to work in terms of skills & capabilities and is looking for a job but could not find it. Here the cause of unemployment is attributed to the weak economic growth and non-availability of job opportunities for those who are able to work and looking for work. 

In Saudi Arabia the matter is different, jobs are more than the number of Saudis who are looking for work, but the jobs require technical skills and capabilities not available with the Saudi youth who was graduated from the university without acquiring the good level of education which qualifies him to these jobs which require scientific skill and technical requirements. For this reason, the state allowed recruitment of foreign skilled labor to perform operation & maintenance works and manage factories, equipment, devices, electronic systems, communication systems, etc. As for unskilled labor with very low salaries and the works relating  to cleaning and household services, etc. the Saudi youths are not interested in such jobs neither in terms of salary, which is very low, nor in terms of accepting such works, and we should not push in their direction in terms of organizing the value added for utilizing the national labor.

The Saudi youth, male & female, were placed between the hammer and the anvil as the proverb says, most of them passed through the primary, intermediate and secondary education levels and then the university but they didn’t obtain a good scientific qualification, and this is the responsibility of the state which prepares the educational curricula, employs teachers, builds schools & universities, and manage all that relates to the general education system. On the other hand, the Saudis (males & females) who are seeking job opportunities after graduation face requirements in the labor market which they cannot fulfill: scientific & technical requirements and foreign language, requirements and skills which were not included in their curricula in all the educational levels, and even if they were included, they were provided to them in a weak manner, weak curriculum and in incomplete laboratory by a weak teacher.

The economic development strategy adopted by the state particularly since the five year plan (1975 – 1980) focused to a great extent on bringing high technologies for its petrochemical industries and their derivatives, and it also imposed on the private sector the best technologies through the terms of the Industrial Development Fund and the Public Investments Fund. These imported technologies, built-in the machinery, equipment and devices in all the government & private sectors, were converted into technical & technological requirements in the Saudi labor market.

The young citizen was placed between two things for which he has no artifice or strength: a theoretical educational system which is weak in its scientific & professional content and labor market requirements stipulating competence, scientific abilities and foreign languages. The reason of unemployment among Saudis in my viewpoint is the large gap between the abilities & capabilities of a citizen who was not qualified scientifically and professionally, not because of insufficiency in his mental abilities but due to weak general education system, and between the labor market requirements. This gap stood as an impregnable obstacle in the face of the Saudi youth for obtaining the jobs which require high productivity and offer high salaries, such jobs we occupied necessarily by the qualified foreigners, and this led to unemployment among Saudis that has accumulated over the years.

The state, represented by the Ministry of Labor and all its Ministers, evaded confronting the real problem of the Saudi unemployment which is the weakness of the Saudi educational system and the non-compatibility of its outputs with the labor market requirements. Instead of confronting this problem, the state went looking for inefficient  solutions which resemble sedative ointments & drugs and thus the “Saudization system” was invented. The Saudization process transferred the problem of seeking a solution for unemployment from the state to the private sector. Moreover, the state instead of drawing up structural procedures for originating a fundamental change in all levels and contents of education starting from the curricula with the aim of achieving compatibility between the education outputs and the labor market requirements, each Labor Minister started to do his best to make equations, tables and different colors for measuring Saudization in the private sector establishments. With the Saudization system, considering the deepness & essence of the problem was neglected i.e. instead of focusing on the education system and what relates to raising the level of the qualitative aspect of the citizen’s abilities, they concentrate on the easy aspect, namely, what the private sector can do to employ the unemployed Saudi in any job regardless of his productivity, behavior, and scientific & professional development.

With the orientation of the private sector to employ Saudis in the low level administrative jobs, security jobs, etc. in order to achieve high percentage of Saudization or reach the green zone according to latest classifications of the Ministry of labor, we started to hear about reduction in the unemployment rate and the increase in the number of the Saudis who were employed.

Saudization pushed the Saudi unemployment problem to an inappropriate direction and to the temporary solutions on the account of the radical solutions pertinent to changing & developing the education system and the qualification and training system. Not only this, Saudization also contributed to the loss of the future of the youths, who were not qualified scientifically and who quitted their education for social reasons, through directing them to low level administrative jobs which do not require science or knowledge instead of pushing them, in this appropriate age for learning, to the classrooms in the scientific & technical colleges.

The alternative to the Saudization program in my viewpoint, as I suggested several years ago, is a national plan that push those youths back to the classrooms to have scientific & technical education in all fields within a framework of a plan based on the following:

1.      Establishing the National Commission for Scientific & Technical Qualification in order to raise the scientific efficiency of the unemployed Saudis and those who are interested to raise their scientific efficiency among those of low-grade jobs and low salaries. The Commission members must be appointed from citizens of competence & knowledge as regards the technical education. A capital not less than SR 25 million ought to be appropriated to this Commission, and this capital has to be increased when necessary. The Commission shall have financial & functional independence from the Ministry of Finance or the Civil Rights Bureau, and its works & performance will be supervised the Shura Council  and shall be directly linked to the Council of Ministers.

2.      Establishing technical scientific compounds “scientific cities” in the five big regions of the Kingdom: central, eastern, western, northern and southern, and those compounds will include technical scientific colleges in the fields of engineering, mechanical, chemical, electrical, geology, mineral, medical & technical support, nursing, etc. and the management of these colleges must be assigned to specialized international institutions from countries that have wide experience in these fields such as Germany, Japan, the United States of America, Korea, etc. The main task of these foreign scientific institutions shall be management of the educational process, preparation of curricula, and recruiting the teachers. The “scientific cities” will include the necessary laboratories & workshops, good standard residential apartments for bachelors and married persons, hospital & clinics, sports & recreational facilities and public parks (like the compound of Aramco or King Abdulla University for science & technology).

3.      Every unemployed Saudi or those who wish to raise their scientific and technical competence will be invited to join these colleges, and the applicants will be classified into groups each according to his level of education and current scientific abilities.

4.      Those enrolled in these colleges will be taught English language for a complete year by an institute specialized in English language teaching before starting the field of specialty, they have chosen, which is compatible with their abilities.

5.      A contract shall be concluded between the applicant and the “National Commission for Scientific & Technical Qualification”, by virtue of which the applicant undertakes to continue his studies till graduation and achieving a good percentage in the scientific performance, and the state represented by the Commission shall be obligated to do the following:

A.     Pay a monthly salary to the student not less than SR 5,000 for example.

B.      Providing accommodation inside the scientific city to the student if he is a bachelor and to him and his family & children if he is married.

C.      Providing treatment to the student and his family & children.

D.     For those who provide for their parents & brothers and sisters, the social affairs will support their families till their graduation.

6.      Cancellation of the Technical & Vocational Training Corporation and transfer its budget to the Commission, also cancellation of the Saudization program and the Funds related to it and transfer their budgets and funds to the Commission, and the same will be applicable to the expenses of the departments & branches of the Ministry of Labor which are involved in the Saudization programs.

In my point of view, the final outcome from applying this program which is directly geared to solving the problem of low technical & technological abilities of the graduates of the general education system at all it levels shall be offering jobs for all unemployed Saudis  thus unemployment will be actually eliminated and there will be a new generation of the Saudi youths, males & females, who have very high standard of competence and technical & professional ability.

 This project does not cancel or reduce the importance and necessity of re-structuring the whole educational system because schools & universities are the main place for building the mind of the citizen and broadening it scientifically & intellectually. The National Commission for Scientific & Technical Qualification shall remain a tributary and a raiser of the professional, technological and technical aspect of the general education system and an important instrument for solving the problem of the unemployment resulting from the weak technical & technological formation of the Saudi job seekers.

Political & social development as a prerequisite for economic development

Political & social development are the two basic sides and with economic side they establish the comprehensive development triangle in any nation. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia does not differ from the rest of nations in the basic lines of the human history’s march, we are humans as all the humans. Every nation has its own circumstances and historical phases through which it passes, but the human development direction is one, a direction that necessarily leads, whatsoever long time it takes, to support the human freedom, dignity and rights.

Vision 2030 document is originally concerned with introducing a structural fundamental change in the economic structure to ward off the economic risks which will become true if our economic condition in spending, depending on the petroleum, squandering, administrative  & financial corruption, non-transparency, non-accountability, and weak productivity continues as it is. Therefore, the real change for the sake of reform and development is a semi-unanimous demand at all levels as I explained previously.

The economic development and the resultant increase in income for the welfare of the community depend on the citizen (male and female) because he is backbone and the center of the circle for achieving the economic development. If the citizen is righteous everything will be righteous, and if he is corrupted everything will be corrupted. Man instinctually and as per his human nature is inclined to truth, goodness, justice, freedom, production and dignity. But man may deviate from these high human values due to the life circumstances and the intellectual circumstances around him. Therefore, the political and social circumstance which forms the general framework of man’s life directly affects his productivity, creativity and economic performance.

For the economic vision project to succeed and achieve its objectives it must be founded on the advancement of the Saudi citizen (male and female), in terms of science, thought, civilization and production because the educated person who is creative & civilized is the effective instrument that is capable of achieving the objectives of the economic vision. Therefore, man is the instrument and at the same time he is the objective of the economic reform process.

The comprehensive economic development which the vision seeks to achieve necessarily requires the development of the political & social aspects related to the economic reform. The economic, political and social aspects are interrelated & integrated in man and community. Transparency in the economic issues & transactions requires freedom of opinion originated & protected by the law so that the seeker of the truth would not fear the anger of an official who is able to injure and harm him, as the process of accountability and calling to account requires the existence of controlling and legislative institutions which are able, as per their regulation, to summon the official and state his shortcomings or corruption and ask him to explain the reasons for that and subject him to disciplinary actions. In the field of rationalization of the decision, the qualified citizens (males and females) must be given the chance to participate in the decision taking process, and the selection of ministers and senior executives should be based on the principle of efficiency, loyalty and integrity. In the field of psychological comfort and social stability, it is necessary to protect the citizen from his brother the citizen who has strict social or jurisprudence ideology and he intends to impose it on him either under the principle of promotion of virtue and prevention of vice or under the principle of dominance. The vision says: “our vision starts from the society and ends to it and the vibrant society represents the first theme in the vision basically to achieve this vision and establish a strong foundation for our economic prosperity, and this theme emerges with our believe in the importance of building a vibrant society. Members of this society live in accordance with the Islamic principles and moderation & soberness approach”.

Advancement of man is not only by uplifting his physical & economic level but also by making him feel his human dignity and respect of his political & social rights and that will lead him to become a stable man economically, socially, and politically.

The vision must include all the basic aspects of the economic, political, and social life of the individual & community in order to achieve its objectives of building a developed, civilized, balanced, moderate and stable society.

Expatriates and their role in implementation of vision 2030 programs

The vision includes multiple industrial, commercial and service programs, and aims at achieving ambitious objectives promptly. In a number of places in the vision there are sentences through which I see an orientation toward bringing more skilled foreign manpower to help in accelerating the implementation of the vision’s objectives. The vision says: “we focus our efforts on privatization of government services and improvement of business environment to attract the best international efficiencies and qualitative investments”.

Also the vision says: “to achieve the desired rate of economic growth at a faster pace, we must create an environment that attracts the necessary skills and capabilities by improving living and working conditions in our country. This will be achieved through allowing more opportunities to non-Saudis to own real estate in certain areas, improving the quality of life, permitting establishment of more foreign schools and adopting an effective and simple system for issuing visas and residence permits. Our aim is readying the attractive environment through which we can invest our human efficiencies and attract the best minds in the world to live in our land and providing all the facilities that they may need, thus we can contribute to push the development process and attract more investments”.  

If the objective of the vision is to accelerate the internal & external investment processes in order to increase and diversify the income sources without the Saudi  citizen (male and female) being the tool & instrument that mainly participates in implementation of the vision’s programs because readying & development of the citizen will take time, then this represents a negative aspect in the vision methodology.

I don’t think that the vision prefers accelerating the investment processes more than making the citizen benefiting from the vision’s programs and I hope that was not what meant by the paragraphs which refer to the importance of the role of the foreign efficiencies in implementation of the vision’s plans & programs.

In the national manpower, thanks to God, there are males & females who have scientific and technical capabilities and efficiencies in all fields. Thanks to the personal and family efforts of those males & females and also thanks to the government support represented in the foreign scholarships. Those represent a firm ground to build on and can be enhanced by high foreign skills & experiences. If we add to that the vision starts implementation of active & real programs to build the scientific and technical capabilities of the citizens whether those unemployed or those seeking to develop their scientific and technical skills, and also developing the education curricula for the purpose of improving the education outputs. With these things and others we can form skilled Saudi manpower which will start implementation of the vision’s program.

Taking all these factors relating to the national manpower into consideration and harmonizing between them and the schedule of implementation of the vision’s projects &  programs will help those in charge of the vision in maximizing the benefit of it in the field of localization of technology in the minds of Saudis and directing the high income to the benefit of the citizen even if this requires some flexibility and deliberation in the implementation of some programs for the sake of obtaining the maximum benefit from them. In this manner the vision will not repeat the negative results of the economic development strategy for the previous five year plans where the speedup spending had  been at the account of building the citizen.

If the vision did not make the focus on raising capability & efficiency of the Saudi citizen prior to or concurrent with the establishment of projects and companies, the gap between the skill of the citizen and his scientific ability on the one hand and the requirements of the labor market on the other hand will be wider than nowadays, and the size of unemployment will increase and this will affect realization of the vision which is mainly concerned, as I wish & hope, with bringing about a fundamental change in the life of the Saudi citizen.

Administrative & financial corruption

In the vision 2030 the following was stated: “we shall not absolutely underrate or be tolerant with corruption in all its forms whether it is financial or administrative”. The confession by the vision that there is a financial and administrative corruption is very good and the commitment to fight it at all levels is very great.

The financial and administrative corruption has a noticeable and apparent presence in our society and it is seen by everyone. Corruption is corrupting everything, corrupting any reform program, killing life and dispiriting determination. It is a cancer from which all countries and nations suffer,  a disease that the world began to feel its seriousness, and the international efforts began to unite and cooperate to eliminate it and reduce it harms.

Corruption makes the citizen look at the officials of the state as if they are not the guards of public money but the transgressors of it. Therefore, corruption makes the public money mismanaged money vulnerable to embezzlement and other encroaches (the mismanaged money is for you or your brother or the wolf).

In March 2011G., the state established the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NAZAHA) and prepared a regulation and bylaws for it, and it dedicated a budget for it and entrusted it with combating the financial and administrative corruption. But, despite all the hopes placed on the Commission, it failed to achieve the hopes of the citizen in fighting the corruption as he sees & feels it.

The Citizen feels that the size of corruption sometimes adjoins the top jobs or those politically protected and he has been intelligent in monitoring and following up the Commission’s achievements. The Commission searched for the crumbs of corruption among managers of warehouses and junior employees, and instead of becoming a hope and a light in the way of reform, the Commission overthrew the hopes and firmed up among some people the idea that reform in this field is impossible.

If the citizen didn’t see enforcement of the law firstly on the senior officials of the state as it is enforced on the managers of warehouses and junior employees, with his intelligence & acumen will come to know that fighting corruption is a mere slogan and has nothing to do with truth & seriousness. This feeling will definitely have considerable impacts on the course of development, reform, and the vision.

The hope placed on the vision is to keep its promise and commitment to combat the financial and administrative corruption in all its forms and levels. 

Development and the moderate jurisprudence

Our constitution as Muslims and Saudis is the Holy Quran and what was categorically proved to be true from the prophet’s sayings (Hadith). The Holy Quran descended gradually from Heaven and was completed by virtue of the holy verse:”This day I have perfected your religion for you and completed my favor unto you and chosen for you Al Islam as a religion” (Sura: Al Ma’idah, verse No: 3). What was categorically proved to be true from the prophet’s sayings conforms with the text of Quran and interprets it. Therefore, the Holy Quran is the constitution of the nation. From the constitution, the laws (Shari’ a), that govern the life of people in all its economic & political & social aspects, are drafted.

In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the life of people is generally governed by laws based on jurisprudential sayings and Fatwas. Jurisprudence, as a branch of the religious sciences, is basically and originally the sayings of honorable & respectable jurisprudents throughout the Islamic history. Those esteemed scholars are human beings like us, they studied jurisprudence and became scholars in the religion, they wrote & interpreted and issued Fatwas, but they remain human beings from them we take and we can reply to what they say if we feel that they are not right.  Imam Al Shafei, one of the senior jurisprudents and one of the senior four Imams said, “our opinion is right with the possibility of being wrong and their opinion is wrong with the possibility of being right”. What applies to Imam Al Shafei applies to all Imams, jurisprudents, speakers and interpreters. All those lived in a different time and social, economic, and political circumstance which was totally different from what is going on nowadays in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The only thing which is constant between us and them is the holy text of Quran and what was categorically proved to be true from the prophet’s sayings.

The laws which govern and control the course of our life with all its religious and mundane aspects were based on jurisprudence i.e. based on the sayings of jurisprudents and on a kind of jurisprudence which is the Hanbali jurisprudence. But this is not my issue as all the respectable Imams to me are alike and their disagreement over some secondary issues  is a mercy to the nation because their saying is a human saying that may be right or wrong, therefore it is necessary to re-draft the laws which govern and control the joints of life of the nation and its advancement and economic, social and political growth. A drafting that must be performed by the jurisprudents of our time, who live between us and who are cognizant with the circumstances of our life, and have worldly education & culture like us.

Every law must be constitutional, i.e. Quranic, and not necessarily ancestral jurisprudential or Hanbali or Shafei or Maliki, etc. What we ought to take and abide by is the saying of Allah the Exalted which was descended in the Holy Quran and what was categorically proved to be true from the prophet’s sayings. As for the sayings of all jurisprudents without exception, they do not have the sacredness of the Quranic text. 

Our Saudi society faces legal restrictions with jurisprudential roots which have a strong impact on its comprehensive developmental path. As the vision is concerned with the issue of advancement & development at the individual and community level, it might be imperative to seek solutions for these issues as a part of man development process which includes raising his scientific, creative and civilized capacities & capabilities. One of these issues, which include but not limited to, is the issue of women driving cars, this dilemma which is hovering in our social space and which was disavowed by the ordinary people and politicians alike, and other similar issues that their negative impact on us is very clear and their positive impact doesn’t need illustration. There should be a political decision to correct these things and put them in the right direction which does not contradict with the moderate Islam and its sublime objectives which elevate the interest of the nation and respect the human dignity, freedom and mind.

This will have a positive impact on the life of the individual as well as the life of the nation and the Kingdom’s position regionally, internationally and culturally and it does not need billions and companies but it needs a political will that believes in the inevitability of change and modification of the course toward the proper direction.

Dr. Abdul Aziz Mohammed Al Dukheil

Riyadh, May 2016G.

Corresponding to: Sha’ban 1437H.